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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still