Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
